Bayesian Reproduction Number Estimation for Dengue Virus Transmission

The estimation of the reproduction number of dengue viral transmission is an active area of research owing to the importance of the reproduction number as an epidemiological quantity. It determines, among others, the intensity of intervention and control measures necessary to contain an outbreak. This study uses the reproduction number proposed by Favier, Degallier, Rosa-Freitas, Boulanger, Costa Lima, Luitgards-Moura, Menkes, Mondet, Oliveira, Weimann, & Tsouris (2006) but employs a Bayesian estimation procedure to estimate the parameters found in the reproduction number. Earlier studies by Chowell, Rivas, Smith, & Hyman (2006) showed that reproduction numbers computed from this basic formula overestimates the viral transmissibility and hence, also overestimates the control mechanisms employed to control the outbreak. The present study essentially deflates the reproduction number by the prior distribution of the parameters in a Bayesian viewpoint. The new estimation procedure is tried out for selected cases in Central Visayas and Bukidnon where outbreaks of dengue cases were noted for 2010.

 

Keywords - reproduction number, Bayesian estimation, dengue flavivirus, incubation period