Weathering the Pandemic: The ‘What If’ Experience in Scenario Planning

The onset of the pandemic introduced unprecedented uncertainties, prompting school leaders to urgently take decisive actions to ensure the resilience of higher education institutions. The institution under review had no choice but to navigate unfamiliar challenges brought by uncertainties to ensure the smooth transition of its instructional responsibilities. Planning in such uncertain times proved challenging, as the unprecedented nature of the situation made it difficult to draw insights from the past (Knight, 1921, 2009). In the context of this framework, scenario planning, an integral aspect of strategic planning emphasizing tools and technologies to navigate future uncertainties, has emerged as a strategically sound approach (Chermack, Lynham, & Ruona, 2001). This study describes the central role of scenario planning in shaping the strategic direction of a university in response to the ambiguous challenges presented by COVID-19.  The process involved applying Heidrick & Struggles’ Scenario Model, as detailed by Barnakova, Snyder, & Skoritowski (2020). Four ‘what if’ scenarios were thoughtfully formulated, that were set in the backdrop of economic recovery and social trust. Each scenario was assigned to a team, tasked with developing a playbook outlining potential future developments. Strategies were then formulated for each ‘what if’ scenario, detailing the institution’s response. This article presents a thorough overview of the institution’s proactive scenario planning endeavors aimed at navigating the uncertainties introduced by the pandemic within the education sector and society. The narrative unfolds the entire process, spanning from scenario generation to the formulation of strategies. Building upon the strategies crafted within the four scenarios, the article distinguished the identification of goals, strategic priorities, and outcome measures. These pivotal components now form the bedrock of the institution’s strategic plan for the next three years.

Keywords: Scenario planning, strategic foresight, scenario thinking. ‘What If” Scenario